How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “How many people will Trump deport in 2026?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 400-500k is dominating the market with an overwhelming 55% chance of winning. 300-400k follows in second place at 8.5%, while 500-600k sits in third with 6.6%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $136.3K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 400-500k (55%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 400-500k is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 55¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $10.6K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 300-400k (8.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 300-400k maintains a 8.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 9¢.
• 500-600k (6.6%): Sitting in third place with a 6.6% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 500-600k, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~29.9%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 200-300k (4.9%), 900k-1m (3%), and 800-900k (2.8%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like >1m are still attracting notable interest.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 400-500k currently trades at 55%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 27.2%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -27.9%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 300-400k as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 8.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 11.4% — yielding an impressive +2.9% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include <200k (EV Gap: +0.5%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.