How many jobs added in August?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “How many jobs added in August?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 50k – 100k is dominating the market with an overwhelming 30% chance of winning. 0 – 50k follows in second place at 26.5%, while -50k – 0 sits in third with 17.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $44.3K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 50k – 100k (30%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 50k – 100k is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 30¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $6.1K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 0 – 50k (26.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 0 – 50k maintains a 26.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 27¢.
• -50k – 0 (17.5%): Sitting in third place with a 17.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward -50k – 0, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~26%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 100k – 150k (16.6%), <-50k (9.5%), and 150k+ (6.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 100k – 150k are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 50k – 100k currently trades at 30%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 19.7%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -10.3%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.