How many Emmys will “Hacks” win?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “How many Emmys will “Hacks” win?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 2-3 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 54% chance of winning. 0-1 follows in second place at 32.3%, while 6-7 sits in third with 18%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $110.4K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 2-3 (54%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 2-3 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 54¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $55.0K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 0-1 (32.3%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 0-1 maintains a 32.3% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 32¢.
• 6-7 (18%): Sitting in third place with a 18% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 6-7, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 4-5 (16%), 8-9 (3.6%), and 10+ (3%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 4-5 are still attracting notable interest.

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California.

This market will resolve according to the number of Emmys won by "Hacks," or by people for their roles in "Hacks," awarded during the live Primetime Emmy Awards ceremony, expected to be held on September 14, 2026. Awards presented at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards (September 5–6, 2026) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Each award will count once even if it has multiple recipients.

If the Primetime Emmys are partially awarded by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the number of awards won by the specified show up until that point. If, for any reason, no winners are declared by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 0-1 currently trades at 32.3%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 7%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -25.3%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 4-5 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 16% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 20.2% — yielding an impressive +4.2% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include 8-9 (EV Gap: +3.6%) and 10+ (EV Gap: +2%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.