How low will Lake Powell drop?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “How low will Lake Powell drop?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Above 3,510 ft is dominating the market with an overwhelming 95.1% chance of winning. 3,500–3,510 ft follows in second place at 3.5%, while Below 3,490 ft sits in third with 0.3%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $92.8K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Above 3,510 ft (95.1%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Above 3,510 ft is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 95¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $42.2K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 3,500–3,510 ft (3.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 3,500–3,510 ft maintains a 3.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 3¢.
• Below 3,490 ft (0.3%): Sitting in third place with a 0.3% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Below 3,490 ft, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~1.3%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 3,490–3,500 ft (0.2%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 3,490–3,500 ft are still attracting notable interest.

This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms.

Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.

The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.

In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Above 3,510 ft currently trades at 95.1%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 62.5%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -32.6%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 3,500–3,510 ft as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 3.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 23.9% — yielding an impressive +20.4% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include 3,490–3,500 ft (EV Gap: +5.7%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.