How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, 5.10% is dominating the market with an overwhelming 88.5% chance of winning. 5.25% follows in second place at 44.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $81.9K, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- 5.10% (88.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 5.10% is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 89¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $34.7K in volume.
🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers
- 5.25% (44.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 5.25% maintains a 44.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 45¢.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5.10% | 88.5% | $34.7K | 89¢ | 12¢ |
| 2 | 5.25% | 44.5% | $29.1K | 45¢ | 56¢ |
Result Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps
While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.
Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.
Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities
Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:
- The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 5.25% as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 44.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 47.4% — yielding an impressive +2.9% EV Gap.
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.10% | 88.5% | 90.2% | +1.7% |
| 5.25%Best EV | 44.5% | 47.4% | +2.9% |
Trade Activities
Here is the trade activities for this event.
Oct 8, 2026
- 06:26 AMSUsuperaiapi$1.09
Bought 1.946429 No for Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027? at 0.56
- 06:26 AMKIKiera23beauty$11.55
Sold 21 No for Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027? at 0.55
- 05:10 AMSESeer-U$1.70
Bought 10 No for Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? at 0.17
- 02:02 AMSESeer-U$1.70
Bought 10 No for Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? at 0.17
Oct 7, 2026
- 11:02 PMSESeer-U$1.80
Bought 10 No for Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? at 0.18
- 08:51 PMIMImSweating$8.80
Sold 20 Yes for Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027? at 0.44
- 07:09 PM——$16.60
Sold 20 Yes for Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? at 0.83
- 07:02 PMCOcorsur4$24.60
Sold 30 Yes for Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? at 0.82
- 07:02 PMT2T22222222222$1.90
Bought 10.555556 No for Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? at 0.18
- 06:19 PMHEHE110W0R1D$16.60
Sold 20 Yes for Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? at 0.83
- 06:18 PMSPspecial-one$3.80
Bought 20 No for Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? at 0.19
- 06:18 PM0X0xEbe3291881167f0282B0868717c9d0463FbE10d8-1780340744299$2.66
Sold 17.7 No for Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? at 0.15
Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?"?
As of the latest update, 5.10% leads the field as the frontrunner with a 88.5% win probability, followed by 5.25% at 44.5%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $81.9K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.
How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?
The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.
Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?
Our latest run flags 5.25% as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 44.5% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 47.4% — an Expected Value gap of +2.9%, making it the premium value play in this pool.