Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 4?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 4?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 27°C is dominating the market with an overwhelming 6,800% chance of winning. 28°C follows in second place at 1,950%, while 29°C sits in third with 1,200%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $32.3K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 27°C (6,800%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 27°C is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 6,800¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $4.4K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 28°C (1,950%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 28°C maintains a 1,950% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 1,950¢.
• 29°C (1,200%): Sitting in third place with a 1,200% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 29°C, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 30°C (300%), 31°C or higher (25%), and 21°C or below (5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 22°C are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt

If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.

In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.