Highest temperature in Paris on November 12?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Highest temperature in Paris on November 12?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 11°C is dominating the market with an overwhelming 92% chance of winning. 12°C follows in second place at 6.9%, while 13°C sits in third with 1.2%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $103.4K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 11°C (92%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 11°C is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 92¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $10.3K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 12°C (6.9%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 12°C maintains a 6.9% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 7¢.
• 13°C (1.2%): Sitting in third place with a 1.2% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 13°C, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 10°C (0.3%), 5°C or below (0.1%), and 6°C (0.1%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 7°C are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Paris-Le Bourget Airport (LFPB) on 12 Nov '26.

The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Paris-Le Bourget Airport (LFPB) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label.

For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf

The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C.

If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. An observation that reports no temperature in either place is disregarded.

Each market in this event states its range in whole degrees Celsius. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with a value ending in exactly half rounded up to the next higher whole degree, and that whole Celsius value determines which range contains it. For example, 13.9°C counts as 14°C; 17.4°C counts as 17°C; 16.5°C counts as 17°C; −1.7°C counts as −2°C; −8.5°C counts as −8°C.

An observation counts if its time stamp, converted to the station's local time (including any daylight-saving shift in effect), falls on the observation date.

This market will resolve at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. Resolution is determined from the observations the resolution source shows for the observation date.

In the event that the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that neither source has published data sufficient to determine a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The report the resolution source shows for a given observation time is the one that counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR). Changes to observations within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. Where the first routine observation for the following date is published before that deadline, resolution is determined from a read taken after it. Where it is not, resolution is determined from a read taken at that deadline.

In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

The resolution source for this market will be the routine observations for Paris-Le Bourget Airport (LFPB) published here:

https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=LFPB&format=raw&date=2026-11-13T02:00:00Z&hours=30

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 11°C currently trades at 92%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 45.1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -46.9%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 12°C as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 6.9% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 13.6% — yielding an impressive +6.7% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include 13°C (EV Gap: +4.3%) and 8°C (EV Gap: +2.9%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.