Highest temperature in Moscow on September 4?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Highest temperature in Moscow on September 4?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 21°C is dominating the market with an overwhelming 64% chance of winning. 20°C follows in second place at 28.5%, while 22°C sits in third with 6%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $35.7K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 21°C (64%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 21°C is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 64¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $5.3K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 20°C (28.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 20°C maintains a 28.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 28¢.
• 22°C (6%): Sitting in third place with a 6% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 22°C, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~1.5%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 23°C (0.9%), 16°C or below (0.1%), and 17°C (0.1%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 18°C are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW

If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.

In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 21°C currently trades at 64%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 51.8%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -12.2%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 22°C as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 6% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 19.8% — yielding an impressive +13.8% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include 19°C (EV Gap: +3.3%) and 23°C (EV Gap: +2.2%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.