Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 55%+ is dominating the market with an overwhelming 30.5% chance of winning. 60%+ follows in second place at 21.5%, while 65%+ sits in third with 10.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $76.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 55%+ (30.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 55%+ is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 31¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $47.9K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 60%+ (21.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 60%+ maintains a 21.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 22¢.
• 65%+ (10.5%): Sitting in third place with a 10.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 65%+, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~37.5%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 70%+ (5.1%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 70%+ are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 60%+ currently trades at 21.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 15.6%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -5.9%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 55%+ as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 30.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 41.9% — yielding an impressive +11.4% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include 70%+ (EV Gap: +7.5%) and 65%+ (EV Gap: +2.1%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.