Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Fernando Dias da Costa is dominating the market with an overwhelming 11.3% chance of winning. Umaro Sissoco Embaló follows in second place at 8.9%, while José Mário Vaz sits in third with 2.6%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $340.8K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Fernando Dias da Costa (11.3%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Fernando Dias da Costa is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 11¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $58.6K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Umaro Sissoco Embaló (8.9%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Umaro Sissoco Embaló maintains a 8.9% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 9¢.
• José Mário Vaz (2.6%): Sitting in third place with a 2.6% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward José Mário Vaz, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~77.3%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes João Bernardo Vieira (1.6%), Baciro Djá (1.6%), and Mamadu Iaia Djaló (1.6%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Honório Augusto Lopes are still attracting notable interest.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Umaro Sissoco Embaló currently trades at 8.9%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 4.6%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -4.2%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Fernando Dias da Costa as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 11.3% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 14.4% — yielding an impressive +3.2% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Herculano Armando Bequinsa (EV Gap: +1.9%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.