Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” is dominating the market with an overwhelming 29.3% chance of winning. FREPASNA follows in second place at 19.9%, while PT sits in third with 11%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $160K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” (29.3%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 29¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $48.8K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• FREPASNA (19.9%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, FREPASNA maintains a 19.9% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 20¢.
• PT (11%): Sitting in third place with a 11% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward PT, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~39.8%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes FLING (4.2%), PS (3.8%), and MUNDO-GB (2.6%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like FLING are still attracting notable interest.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.

This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.

If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome FREPASNA currently trades at 19.9%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 2.2%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -17.7%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 29.3% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 34.1% — yielding an impressive +4.8% EV Gap.