GDP growth in 2026

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “GDP growth in 2026”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 2.0–2.5% is dominating the market with an overwhelming 35.5% chance of winning. 1.5–2.0% follows in second place at 27.1%, while >2.5% sits in third with 22.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $58.1K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 2.0–2.5% (35.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 2.0–2.5% is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 36¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $7.1K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 1.5–2.0% (27.1%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 1.5–2.0% maintains a 27.1% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 27¢.
• >2.5% (22.5%): Sitting in third place with a 22.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward >2.5%, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~15%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 1.0–1.5% (9.3%), <0.5% (6.5%), and 0.5–1.0% (2.7%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 1.0–1.5% are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 2.0–2.5% currently trades at 35.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 15.7%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -19.8%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies >2.5% as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 22.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 24.9% — yielding an impressive +2.4% EV Gap.