Florida Senate Election Winner

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Florida Senate Election Winner”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Ashley Moody (R) is dominating the market with an overwhelming 9,150% chance of winning. Angie Nixon (D) follows in second place at 900%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $158K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Ashley Moody (R) (9,150%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Ashley Moody (R) is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9,150¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $89.9K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Angie Nixon (D) (900%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Angie Nixon (D) maintains a 900% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 900¢.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.