First to list tokenized stocks in the US?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “First to list tokenized stocks in the US?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, No listing by December 31, 2027 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 29.5% chance of winning. Robinhood follows in second place at 25.5%, while Coinbase sits in third with 18%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $97.3K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• No listing by December 31, 2027 (29.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, No listing by December 31, 2027 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 30¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $19.7K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Robinhood (25.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Robinhood maintains a 25.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 26¢.
• Coinbase (18%): Sitting in third place with a 18% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Coinbase, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~27%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Kraken (10.7%), and Gemini (9.3%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Kraken are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to the first of the listed platforms to make tokenized stocks available for purchase in the United States after September 17, 2026. If none of the listed platforms do so by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No listing by December 31, 2027".

A tokenized stock means a blockchain-based token that represents one share, or a fraction of a share, of a stock or ETF listed on a U.S. national securities exchange (such as Nasdaq or the NYSE) and is either backed one-to-one by that security or is itself a share of that security recorded on a blockchain. Tokens tracking shares of private companies, synthetic or derivative products that track a stock's price without being backed by the underlying shares, and stablecoins will not count.

Tokenized stocks are available on a platform when customers holding a U.S. account with that platform are able to buy at least one tokenized stock on that platform, regardless of subscription tier or account minimum. Availability to customers in at least one U.S. state will qualify. Availability limited to customers outside the United States, accredited investors, internal or employee testing, waitlists, and invite-only programs will not qualify. Purchases through a self-custodial wallet or a decentralized exchange, including one reached through the platform's app, will not count. Announcements alone will not qualify.

If two or more listed platforms qualify on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the platform whose tokenized stocks became purchasable first; if that order cannot be established, to the platform that first publicly confirmed availability.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the platforms; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome No listing by December 31, 2027 currently trades at 29.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 12.6%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -16.9%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Kraken as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 10.7% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 15.4% — yielding an impressive +4.7% EV Gap.