Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5.5% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $822.6K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (5.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 6¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $27.8K in volume.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.

Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.

Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies December 31 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 5.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 8% — yielding an impressive +2.5% EV Gap.