Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, December 31 domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 680%. October 31 le sigue en segundo lugar con 350%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $117,8K, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• December 31 (680%): Con la probabilidad más alta, December 31 cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 680¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado. Solo este contrato ha generado $774 de volumen.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• October 31 (350%): Como la alternativa más viable, October 31 mantiene una probabilidad del 350% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 350¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.

Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.

In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.