US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, November 5 domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 9400%. November 6 le sigue en segundo lugar con 8900%, mientras que November 8 se sitúa tercero con 7200%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $1,3K, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• November 5 (9400%): Con la probabilidad más alta, November 5 cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 9400¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado. Solo este contrato ha generado $958 de volumen.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• November 6 (8900%): Como la alternativa más viable, November 6 mantiene una probabilidad del 8900% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 8900¢.
• November 8 (7200%): En tercer lugar con una probabilidad del 7200%, el mercado muestra un escepticismo prudente hacia November 8, tratándolo como un comodín externo salvo que cambie el impulso.

🥉 Nivel 3: Las opciones de cola larga (suman ~0%)

Más allá de las tres primeras opciones, se sigue un amplio campo de variables macro y resultados poco probables. Aunque sus probabilidades individuales son bajas, son coberturas clave para los operadores especulativos:

• Opciones alternativas: Esto incluye November 15 (5400%), November 30 (4400%) y December 31 (4000%).
• Volumen especulativo: A pesar de su baja probabilidad estadística, ciertos contratos de cola larga como November 15 siguen atrayendo un interés notable.

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:

Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;

Surface-to-air missile strikes;

Small-arms fire;

Ground incursions;

Cyber operations;

Naval gunfire and artillery fire;

Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);

Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;

Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Unless a qualifying military action has already been established by a consensus of information available from the resolution sources, this market will remain open until 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the third calendar date following the specified date. If multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a potentially-qualifying incident at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the third calendar date following the specified date, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.