US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, October 31 domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 13%. September 30 le sigue en segundo lugar con 5,5%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $83K, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• October 31 (13%): Con la probabilidad más alta, October 31 cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 13¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado. Solo este contrato ha generado $28.8K de volumen.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• September 30 (5,5%): Como la alternativa más viable, September 30 mantiene una probabilidad del 5,5% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 6¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, the White House, a Cabinet member, an agency or department legally authorized to take such action, or an authorized representative thereof, publicly and officially announces a ban on the export of diesel from the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports.

A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel.

A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a ban, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the ban by name, provided the substance of a prohibition on diesel exports is clearly and unambiguously communicated.

A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.

An announcement by the U.S. government that it accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to ban diesel exports qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates the ban as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party.

The following do not qualify as official announcements:

Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;

Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the U.S. government;

Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a ban;

Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;

Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a ban rather than announcing a present and decided position.

Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a ban on diesel exports is ever actually implemented.

Resolution will be based on official information from the U.S. government or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Aunque el consenso humano y el volumen especulativo dan forma al mercado de predicción, nuestros algoritmos cuantitativos ofrecen una contraperspectiva basada en datos. Al analizar señales fundamentales, tendencias subyacentes y distribuciones históricas, nuestro modelo de Valoración por IA calcula una probabilidad de “Valor Justo” independiente para cada resultado.

Comparar este Valor Justo con el Valor de Mercado actual revela grandes discrepancias, conocidas como la Brecha de Valor Esperado (EV). Los contratos con una Brecha de EV positiva representan resultados infravalorados estadísticamente, mientras que una Brecha de EV negativa señala una posible sobrerreacción del mercado.

Principales Oportunidades de Alpha de IA y Arbitraje

Según la última ejecución del modelo de datos, varios contratos clave destacan con desviaciones significativas:

• La mejor jugada de valor (mayor EV): Nuestro modelo identifica a October 31 como la mejor oportunidad de valor del tablero. Mientras el mercado solo le asigna una probabilidad del 13%, la evaluación de Valor Justo de nuestra IA se sitúa en 22,2%, generando una notable Brecha de EV de +9,2%.
• Caballos ganadores poco visibles: Otras discrepancias notables incluyen September 30 (Brecha de EV: +3,9%). Estas oportunidades de cola larga están muy infravaloradas por los libros de órdenes pese a un mayor respaldo estadístico de nuestro modelo.