Polo makes landfall in Mexico as a hurricane?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Polo makes landfall in Mexico as a hurricane?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, Yes domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 5000%. No le sigue en segundo lugar con 5000%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza —, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• Yes (5000%): Con la probabilidad más alta, Yes cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 5000¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• No (5000%): Como la alternativa más viable, No mantiene una probabilidad del 5000% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 5000¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Polo (NHC designation EP172026) made landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The landfall must occur by that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. If Polo makes landfall more than once, any one qualifying landfall resolves this market to "Yes".

A report means an explicit statement, in a Tropical Cyclone Update, Public Advisory (including intermediate and special advisories), or Discussion issued for Hurricane Polo, that the center made landfall or moved onshore. Landfall occurs when the surface center intersects the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.

A landfall counts if the NHC reports it in Mexico, or on any island, reef, or shoal those products identify as part of Mexico. This market applies no geographic boundary other than the one the NHC applies. A track map, cone graphic, or GIS product will not be considered for resolution, including where the line it draws passes over land. Track reconstruction by any party, an NHC center position that the NHC does not report as a landfall, and landfall reports from any other meteorological agency or from news media, will not be considered for resolution.

Polo must be a hurricane at the reported landfall: maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater, Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php). The intensity is the one the NHC states for the landfall, or, where the NHC states none, the one in the last advisory issued before it. Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. If Polo is a tropical storm, a tropical depression, a post-tropical cyclone, or a remnant low at the landfall, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve once the NHC publishes a qualifying report, or at October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the NHC has published none at that point, or has issued its final advisory on Polo without one, this market will resolve to "No". No substitute data provider will be used.

If the NHC corrects or removes a published landfall report or stated intensity as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected information will be used; otherwise the published information stands. Otherwise, once the NHC has published a qualifying report, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent revisions. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Updates, Public Advisories, and Discussions issued for Hurricane Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/).