U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, October 31 domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 98,4%. December 31 le sigue en segundo lugar con 98,2%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $176,9K, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• October 31 (98,4%): Con la probabilidad más alta, October 31 cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 98¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado. Solo este contrato ha generado $157.8K de volumen.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• December 31 (98,2%): Como la alternativa más viable, December 31 mantiene una probabilidad del 98,2% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 98¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. personnel directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic action directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

"U.S. personnel” refers to members of the U.S. Armed Forces and officers or employees of any U.S. government department or agency acting in an official capacity.

An anti-cartel operation or kinetic action is “directed against a cartel” if it explicitly targets a cartel, a narcotics-trafficking organization, a narco-terrorist organization, or the personnel, assets, infrastructure, or activities of any such group or organization. A specific cartel or organization need not be named.

“Foreign soil” means the terrestrial territory of a country other than the United States, including internal waters within that territory. Territorial seas, other maritime zones, and airspace are excluded. Where borders are disputed, territory claimed by and under the de facto control of a foreign country as of market creation will qualify.

A qualifying anti-cartel operation refers to an operation in which U.S. personnel are physically present as part of the force directly engaging cartel personnel, assets, or infrastructure on foreign soil. For example, qualifying operations may include a raid; entry, breach, or search of a target site; a search, arrest, apprehension, detention, boarding, interdiction, or seizure; disabling or destroying cartel assets or infrastructure; or direct ground combat against cartel personnel.U.S. personnel must be physically present on foreign soil at the target site or its immediate perimeter as part of the force carrying out or attempting a qualifying operational action against a cartel target. Such presence qualifies regardless of whether U.S. personnel themselves enter the target site or carry out the action. Mere presence on foreign soil, indirect participation in a joint operation, or involvement limited to training, intelligence, surveillance, logistics, support, advisory, command-and-control, coordination, reconnaissance, patrols, transportation, force protection, inspections, demonstrations, media or information campaigns, or similar activities will not count unless the requirement for physical presence at the target site or its immediate perimeter as part of the force conducting the qualifying action is met.

Only operations in which direct U.S. participation is confirmed by official statements from the U.S. government or by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, will qualify. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.

Qualifying kinetic actions include air strikes and surface-to-surface missile strikes, initiated by U.S. personnel, directed against a cartel target located on foreign soil. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. Kinetic actions that consist primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying kinetic action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.

The occurrence, attribution to U.S. personnel, timing, location, target, and nature of U.S. participation in a potentially qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action will be determined primarily from official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Where credible reporting indicates that a potentially qualifying action occurred within the market timeframe but any fact required for qualification is materially disputed or inconclusive, the market will remain open with respect to that action until the earlier of: i) confirmation that the action qualifies through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting; or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third full calendar day after the first credibly reported evidence of the action. The date of the first credible report will not count as one of the three full calendar days. If this period ends before the specified date and the available evidence remains inconclusive, the market will remain open pending later confirmation or a subsequent qualifying action. If the period extends past the specified date, the market will remain open until the period ends. After the specified date and the expiration of any applicable three-day period, the market will resolve to “No” unless a qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action has been established through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Aunque el consenso humano y el volumen especulativo dan forma al mercado de predicción, nuestros algoritmos cuantitativos ofrecen una contraperspectiva basada en datos. Al analizar señales fundamentales, tendencias subyacentes y distribuciones históricas, nuestro modelo de Valoración por IA calcula una probabilidad de “Valor Justo” independiente para cada resultado.

Comparar este Valor Justo con el Valor de Mercado actual revela grandes discrepancias, conocidas como la Brecha de Valor Esperado (EV). Los contratos con una Brecha de EV positiva representan resultados infravalorados estadísticamente, mientras que una Brecha de EV negativa señala una posible sobrerreacción del mercado.

Principales Oportunidades de Alpha de IA y Arbitraje

Según la última ejecución del modelo de datos, varios contratos clave destacan con desviaciones significativas:

• El resultado más sobrevalorado: October 31 cotiza actualmente a 98,4%, pero nuestra IA sitúa su Valor Justo en solo 79,6%. Esto crea una gran Brecha de EV negativa de -18,7%, lo que sugiere que la multitud podría estar sobrevalorando este resultado.