North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, December 31, 2028 domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 2550%. December 31, 2027 le sigue en segundo lugar con 1750%, mientras que June 30, 2027 se sitúa tercero con 1550%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $80,9K, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• December 31, 2028 (2550%): Con la probabilidad más alta, December 31, 2028 cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 2550¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado. Solo este contrato ha generado $8.7K de volumen.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• December 31, 2027 (1750%): Como la alternativa más viable, December 31, 2027 mantiene una probabilidad del 1750% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 1750¢.
• June 30, 2027 (1550%): En tercer lugar con una probabilidad del 1550%, el mercado muestra un escepticismo prudente hacia June 30, 2027, tratándolo como un comodín externo salvo que cambie el impulso.

🥉 Nivel 3: Las opciones de cola larga (suman ~0%)

Más allá de las tres primeras opciones, se sigue un amplio campo de variables macro y resultados poco probables. Aunque sus probabilidades individuales son bajas, son coberturas clave para los operadores especulativos:

• Opciones alternativas: Esto incluye December 31, 2026 (550%).
• Volumen especulativo: A pesar de su baja probabilidad estadística, ciertos contratos de cola larga como December 31, 2026 siguen atrayendo un interés notable.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of North Carolina enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies.

Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the certified results, regardless of when the measure is certified or takes effect. Passage by one or both chambers, or a Governor's announced intent to sign, is not enactment.

Executive orders, agency orders, and other measures which are not statutory or constitutional do not qualify as enactment regardless of legal force. A provision removed by line-item veto is not enacted unless the veto is overridden as to that item. The operative text of the measure at enactment controls; provisions amended out before enactment do not qualify.

The moratorium provision must be mandatory on its face. A statute that merely authorizes a state agency or the Governor to impose a moratorium at their discretion does not qualify. A statute that directs suspension of approvals or interconnection upon a specified condition qualifies only if the condition is objectively determinable and is not deferred to be determined by the implementing agency's findings, certifications, or completion of its own proceedings.

This market resolves based on the date of enactment, not the effective date. Resolution will not be affected by failure to implement a law, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry that follows a relevant enactment, or an effective date that comes after the date of enactment.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the state government of North Carolina; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.