How many Jensen Huang affairs will be reported by December 31?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “How many Jensen Huang affairs will be reported by December 31?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, 3 domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 53%. 4 le sigue en segundo lugar con 25,5%, mientras que 5 se sitúa tercero con 6,5%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $89,2K, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• 3 (53%): Con la probabilidad más alta, 3 cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 53¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado. Solo este contrato ha generado $32.0K de volumen.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• 4 (25,5%): Como la alternativa más viable, 4 mantiene una probabilidad del 25,5% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 26¢.
• 5 (6,5%): En tercer lugar con una probabilidad del 6,5%, el mercado muestra un escepticismo prudente hacia 5, tratándolo como un comodín externo salvo que cambie el impulso.

🥉 Nivel 3: Las opciones de cola larga (suman ~15%)

Más allá de las tres primeras opciones, se sigue un amplio campo de variables macro y resultados poco probables. Aunque sus probabilidades individuales son bajas, son coberturas clave para los operadores especulativos:

• Opciones alternativas: Esto incluye 6 (6,5%) y 7+ (6%).
• Volumen especulativo: A pesar de su baja probabilidad estadística, ciertos contratos de cola larga como 6 siguen atrayendo un interés notable.

On November 8, 2026, Jensen Huang acknowledged in a message to NVIDIA employees that he had been unfaithful to his wife; news reports have identified the woman involved as Alice Huang. On November 11, 2026, The New York Times reported that Huang had also had an affair with Kimberly Powell, NVIDIA’s vice president of healthcare; Huang, Powell and NVIDIA have not confirmed that report. On November 12, 2026, Reuters reported that Huang had an intimate relationship with a second NVIDIA employee, whom it did not name.

This market will resolve according to the number of people with whom Jensen Huang has been reported to have had an affair as of December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The count starts at three (Alice Huang, Kimberly Powell and the NVIDIA employee reported by Reuters) and increases by one for each additional person who is the subject of a qualifying report published by a qualifying outlet between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An affair refers to a romantic or sexual relationship outside Jensen Huang’s marriage. The affair itself may have taken place at any time during his marriage; only the timing of the report matters.

The qualifying outlets are The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Financial Times, Reuters, the Associated Press, CNN, Bloomberg, ABC News, CBS News, NBC News and Fox News. Only news articles published on an outlet’s own platform qualify; editorials, opinion pieces, columns, broadcast or video segments, podcasts, social media posts and sponsored content will not qualify.

A report will qualify if it meets any of the following:

1. presents the affair as fact;

2. reports the affair based on the outlet’s own sourcing, such as people familiar with the matter, documents or recordings (as in The New York Times’ November 11, 2026 report on Kimberly Powell);

3. reports an alleged affair between Jensen Huang and a specific person other than Alice Huang, Kimberly Powell, the employee reported by Reuters or anyone else already counted, regardless of whether the outlet presents the allegation as credible; or

4. reports that Jensen Huang, directly or through his official or legal representatives, has acknowledged such an affair.

Reports under 1 or 2 qualify whether or not the person involved is named, provided they clearly distinguish that person from Alice Huang, Kimberly Powell, the unnamed NVIDIA employee reported by Reuters and anyone else already counted. A report does so if it, or other reporting from a qualifying outlet, makes clear that the person is not someone already counted (e.g., by describing them as a third NVIDIA employee with whom Huang had a relationship, or as someone who has never worked at NVIDIA). A report confirming that Huang had affairs with at least a stated number of people will set the count to that number if it is higher than the count otherwise established.

If it is unclear whether a person in a report is someone already counted, that person will be treated as already counted, and this market will resolve to the lower number.

The following will not add to the count:

(i) reports that name or otherwise identify the NVIDIA employee reported by Reuters or anyone else already counted;

(ii) reports about any person, named or unnamed, that do not make clear, on their own or together with other reporting from a qualifying outlet, that the person is not someone already counted;

(iii) general references to Huang’s infidelity (e.g., “Huang has been unfaithful for a while”); and

(iv) allegations about an unnamed person that the outlet only relays from others, such as social media posts or other outlets’ reporting.

A report under 4 qualifies only if it reports an acknowledgment, including one in private testimony that has been made public, that names a person who is distinguished from those already counted as described above, or makes clear that Huang was unfaithful with more people than the count otherwise established (for example, by acknowledging affairs with four or more people). Reports of acknowledgments that are not explicit and unambiguous, or that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest or immediately clarified as not being genuine, will not qualify.

Alice Huang, Kimberly Powell and the NVIDIA employee reported by Reuters count toward the total even though they were reported before market creation. Any additional person counts only if a qualifying report about them is first published between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Reports that only reference or link to articles published before market creation will not qualify unless they themselves meet the requirements above, and an article first published before market creation will qualify only if a later update first makes it meet those requirements, in which case the time of the update governs.

The resolution source for this market will be reporting from the qualifying outlets; for acknowledgments, official information from Jensen Huang or his official or legal representatives may also be used.

Aunque el consenso humano y el volumen especulativo dan forma al mercado de predicción, nuestros algoritmos cuantitativos ofrecen una contraperspectiva basada en datos. Al analizar señales fundamentales, tendencias subyacentes y distribuciones históricas, nuestro modelo de Valoración por IA calcula una probabilidad de “Valor Justo” independiente para cada resultado.

Comparar este Valor Justo con el Valor de Mercado actual revela grandes discrepancias, conocidas como la Brecha de Valor Esperado (EV). Los contratos con una Brecha de EV positiva representan resultados infravalorados estadísticamente, mientras que una Brecha de EV negativa señala una posible sobrerreacción del mercado.

Principales Oportunidades de Alpha de IA y Arbitraje

Según la última ejecución del modelo de datos, varios contratos clave destacan con desviaciones significativas:

• El resultado más sobrevalorado: 4 cotiza actualmente a 25,5%, pero nuestra IA sitúa su Valor Justo en solo 13,2%. Esto crea una gran Brecha de EV negativa de -12,3%, lo que sugiere que la multitud podría estar sobrevalorando este resultado.