Gemini Hydrogen: HLE-Diamond Debut?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Gemini Hydrogen: HLE-Diamond Debut?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, 35%+ domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 99,4%. 40%+ le sigue en segundo lugar con 99,3%, mientras que 30%+ se sitúa tercero con 98,1%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $29,5K, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• 35%+ (99,4%): Con la probabilidad más alta, 35%+ cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 99¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado. Solo este contrato ha generado $5.3K de volumen.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• 40%+ (99,3%): Como la alternativa más viable, 40%+ mantiene una probabilidad del 99,3% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 99¢.
• 30%+ (98,1%): En tercer lugar con una probabilidad del 98,1%, el mercado muestra un escepticismo prudente hacia 30%+, tratándolo como un comodín externo salvo que cambie el impulso.

🥉 Nivel 3: Las opciones de cola larga (suman ~0%)

Más allá de las tres primeras opciones, se sigue un amplio campo de variables macro y resultados poco probables. Aunque sus probabilidades individuales son bajas, son coberturas clave para los operadores especulativos:

• Opciones alternativas: Esto incluye 45%+ (96,7%) y 50%+ (82%).
• Volumen especulativo: A pesar de su baja probabilidad estadística, ciertos contratos de cola larga como 45%+ siguen atrayendo un interés notable.

On November 5, 2026, OfficeChai reported that Google was internally testing a Gemini 4 Flash-tier model codenamed "Hydrogen," described as a lighter, faster sibling to Gemini 4 Argon and Gemini 4 Carbon (https://officechai.com/ai/gemini-4-hydrogen/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Google "Hydrogen" model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE-Diamond Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Hydrogen" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Hydrogen, Gemini 4 Hydrogen, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model listed under any other name, including a new Gemini Flash model (e.g., Gemini 4 Flash) or an update to an existing Gemini model, will qualify only if it is confirmed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Hydrogen". Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Hydrogen will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.

The percentage displayed as "HLE-Diamond Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on HLE-Diamond" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the HLE-Diamond Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, any note that a score was computed on a sample of questions, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.

If the Center for AI Safety (CAIS), which maintains the official Humanity's Last Exam results, publishes a qualifying score (defined below) for the model, and the model has not been displayed on the chart by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day (ET) after the first such publication, that score will be used instead, rounded to one decimal place. If multiple qualifying scores for the model have been published by that time, the highest will be used.

A qualifying score is one issued under CAIS's name (for example, on https://agi.safe.ai/, https://lastexam.ai/, or https://dashboard.safe.ai/, including jointly with Scale AI) that is clearly identified as overall accuracy on the full HLE-Diamond question set (1,000 questions, released September 22, 2026), without tools, at the reasoning setting labeled "high" in HLE-Diamond's main results.

No score other than the chart value or a qualifying score will count, even if no qualifying score is published. This includes scores on the original Humanity's Last Exam or HLE-Rolling, "reasoning max" or "with tools" results, Reasoning or Knowledge partition scores, values available only through an API, data file, or page source, scores from Scale AI's separate leaderboards, other evaluators, or the model's developer, and any score where there is reasonable doubt that it meets the conditions above.

A model first appears on the site on the earlier of the date (ET) it is first displayed on the chart and the date (ET) a qualifying score for it is first published. If the chart value is used, the check described in the first paragraph takes place at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the model's first display on the chart; if a qualifying score is used, it takes place at the end of the three-day period described above.

If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity's Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE-Diamond Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered.

If a model is first added to the Humanity's Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that no HLE-Diamond Accuracy for it is available under these rules at the time of the check, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity's Last Exam results.

A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity's Last Exam results. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.

In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

The primary resolution source for this market is the official Humanity's Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at the time of the check, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model's HLE-Diamond Accuracy becomes available. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Aunque el consenso humano y el volumen especulativo dan forma al mercado de predicción, nuestros algoritmos cuantitativos ofrecen una contraperspectiva basada en datos. Al analizar señales fundamentales, tendencias subyacentes y distribuciones históricas, nuestro modelo de Valoración por IA calcula una probabilidad de “Valor Justo” independiente para cada resultado.

Comparar este Valor Justo con el Valor de Mercado actual revela grandes discrepancias, conocidas como la Brecha de Valor Esperado (EV). Los contratos con una Brecha de EV positiva representan resultados infravalorados estadísticamente, mientras que una Brecha de EV negativa señala una posible sobrerreacción del mercado.

Principales Oportunidades de Alpha de IA y Arbitraje

Según la última ejecución del modelo de datos, varios contratos clave destacan con desviaciones significativas:

• El resultado más sobrevalorado: 45%+ cotiza actualmente a 96,7%, pero nuestra IA sitúa su Valor Justo en solo 79,1%. Esto crea una gran Brecha de EV negativa de -17,7%, lo que sugiere que la multitud podría estar sobrevalorando este resultado.