Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, Democrats Sweep domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 49,5%. R Senate, D House le sigue en segundo lugar con 35,5%, mientras que Republicans Sweep se sitúa tercero con 11,5%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $11M, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• Democrats Sweep (49,5%): Con la probabilidad más alta, Democrats Sweep cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 50¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado. Solo este contrato ha generado $2.8M de volumen.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• R Senate, D House (35,5%): Como la alternativa más viable, R Senate, D House mantiene una probabilidad del 35,5% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 36¢.
• Republicans Sweep (11,5%): En tercer lugar con una probabilidad del 11,5%, el mercado muestra un escepticismo prudente hacia Republicans Sweep, tratándolo como un comodín externo salvo que cambie el impulso.

🥉 Nivel 3: Las opciones de cola larga (suman ~3,5%)

Más allá de las tres primeras opciones, se sigue un amplio campo de variables macro y resultados poco probables. Aunque sus probabilidades individuales son bajas, son coberturas clave para los operadores especulativos:

• Opciones alternativas: Esto incluye D Senate, R House (1%) y Other (0,3%).
• Volumen especulativo: A pesar de su baja probabilidad estadística, ciertos contratos de cola larga como D Senate, R House siguen atrayendo un interés notable.

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election.

A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated.

A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.

The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers.

For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026.

For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.

For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.

Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Aunque el consenso humano y el volumen especulativo dan forma al mercado de predicción, nuestros algoritmos cuantitativos ofrecen una contraperspectiva basada en datos. Al analizar señales fundamentales, tendencias subyacentes y distribuciones históricas, nuestro modelo de Valoración por IA calcula una probabilidad de “Valor Justo” independiente para cada resultado.

Comparar este Valor Justo con el Valor de Mercado actual revela grandes discrepancias, conocidas como la Brecha de Valor Esperado (EV). Los contratos con una Brecha de EV positiva representan resultados infravalorados estadísticamente, mientras que una Brecha de EV negativa señala una posible sobrerreacción del mercado.

Principales Oportunidades de Alpha de IA y Arbitraje

Según la última ejecución del modelo de datos, varios contratos clave destacan con desviaciones significativas:

• El resultado más sobrevalorado: Republicans Sweep cotiza actualmente a 11,5%, pero nuestra IA sitúa su Valor Justo en solo 11,3%. Esto crea una gran Brecha de EV negativa de -0,2%, lo que sugiere que la multitud podría estar sobrevalorando este resultado.
• La mejor jugada de valor (mayor EV): Nuestro modelo identifica a R Senate, D House como la mejor oportunidad de valor del tablero. Mientras el mercado solo le asigna una probabilidad del 35,5%, la evaluación de Valor Justo de nuestra IA se sitúa en 46,7%, generando una notable Brecha de EV de +11,2%.
• Caballos ganadores poco visibles: Otras discrepancias notables incluyen D Senate, R House (Brecha de EV: +1,2%) y Other (Brecha de EV: +0,4%). Estas oportunidades de cola larga están muy infravaloradas por los libros de órdenes pese a un mayor respaldo estadístico de nuestro modelo.