Birmingham City FC vs. Swansea City AFC

$114.6K Vol
Nov 7, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
Yes 100.0%
No 0.1%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Birmingham City FC vs. Swansea City AFC”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Birmingham City FC is dominating the market with an overwhelming 51.5% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $114.6K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • Birmingham City FC (51.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Birmingham City FC is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 52¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $64.1K in volume.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
1Birmingham City FC51.5%$64.1K52¢49¢

Result Rules

This event is for the upcoming EFL Championship game, scheduled for Saturday, November 7, 2026 between Birmingham City FC and Swansea City AFC.

AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

  • The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Birmingham City FC as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 51.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 54.2% — yielding an impressive +2.7% EV Gap.
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Birmingham City FCBest EV51.5%54.2%+2.7%

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Nov 7, 2026

  • 10:17 AM
    0X0x0a0e229CcF2dd9884C711bC4833919afD60cEC73-1783292345311
    $1.00

    Bought 4.545455 Yes for Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-11-07? at 0.22

  • 10:12 AM
    SBsbsigner
    $161.75

    Bought 336.97 No for Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-11-07? at 0.48

  • 09:58 AM
    SUsuntori
    $2.38

    Bought 4.490565 Yes for Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-11-07? at 0.53

  • 09:37 AM
    SUsuntori
    $4.76

    Bought 8.981131 Yes for Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-11-07? at 0.53

  • 09:33 AM
    SUsuntori
    $47.61

    Bought 91.557693 Yes for Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-11-07? at 0.52

  • 09:24 AM
    CHchuzihang03
    $50.00

    Bought 102.040817 No for Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-11-07? at 0.49

  • 09:20 AM
    SAsaney.cowboy
    $3.95

    Bought 5 No for Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-11-07? at 0.79

  • 08:13 AM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $4.68

    Bought 9 Yes for Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-11-07? at 0.52

  • 07:51 AM
    0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396
    $19.04

    Bought 36.615385 Yes for Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-11-07? at 0.52

  • 07:09 AM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $120.64

    Bought 232 Yes for Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-11-07? at 0.52

  • 07:07 AM
    LIligabetter
    $5.00

    Bought 9.615385 Yes for Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-11-07? at 0.52

  • 06:59 AM
    ——
    $3.00

    Bought 6.122449 No for Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-11-07? at 0.49

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

781
0x7880…9223
Event PnL
-$4.99
Volume
$10,000.00
Positions
No
SA2
sahily
Event PnL
-$97.06
Volume
$8,211.29
Positions
Yes
PV3
pvc975
Event PnL
+$3.91
Volume
$7,829.21
Positions
Yes
RN4
RN1
Event PnL
+$3,027.76
Volume
$7,598.11
Positions
YesNo
FL5
Flaznorp
Event PnL
-$2,659.58
Volume
$7,339.77
Positions
NoYesNo
SN6
SnakeBall
Event PnL
+$83.92
Volume
$6,744.32
Positions
No
GO7
GoalLineGhost
Event PnL
+$2,824.91
Volume
$6,493.81
Positions
NoYes
LI8
LightParadox
Event PnL
-$3,758.26
Volume
$4,989.24
Positions
YesNo

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "Birmingham City FC vs. Swansea City AFC"?

As of the latest update, Birmingham City FC leads the field as the frontrunner with a 51.5% win probability. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $114.6K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?

The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.

Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?

Our latest run flags Birmingham City FC as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 51.5% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 54.2% — an Expected Value gap of +2.7%, making it the premium value play in this pool.

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