"Ebenezer" Opening Weekend Box Office

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “"Ebenezer" Opening Weekend Box Office”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 19m-22m is dominating the market with an overwhelming 51.5% chance of winning. 16m-19m follows in second place at 31.5%, while 22m-25m sits in third with 11%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $13.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 19m-22m (51.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 19m-22m is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 52¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $3.2K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 16m-19m (31.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 16m-19m maintains a 31.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 32¢.
• 22m-25m (11%): Sitting in third place with a 11% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 22m-25m, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~6%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 25m-28m (7.5%), 28m+ (4.4%), and <16m (2.4%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 25m-28m are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to how much "Ebenezer" will gross domestically on its 3-day opening weekend (November 13 - 15).

This market will resolve as soon as a final (i.e., not studio estimates) opening weekend figure is available, and no later than December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is the opening weekend figure in the "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the "Box Office" tab of this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page. If The Numbers does not have a final figure by December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the "Weekend" figure for the movie's first weekend on the "Domestic Weekend" tab of this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/) release page.

If neither source has a final figure by December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the figure The Numbers reports at that time, or, if The Numbers reports none, the figure Box Office Mojo reports at that time. If neither source reports any figure by December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve according to the figure for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 19m-22m currently trades at 51.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 22.7%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -28.8%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 22m-25m as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 11% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 16.2% — yielding an impressive +5.2% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include <16m (EV Gap: +0.5%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.