Trump out as President by September 30?
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Trump out as President by September 30?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, No is dominating the market with an overwhelming 9,925% chance of winning. Yes follows in second place at 75%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $346.7K, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- No (9,925%): Currently commanding the highest probability, No is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9,925¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.
🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers
- Yes (75%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Yes maintains a 75% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 75¢.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No | 9925.0% | — | 9925¢ | -9825¢ |
| 2 | Yes | 75.0% | — | 75¢ | 25¢ |
Result Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "Trump out as President by September 30?"?
As of the latest update, No leads the field as the frontrunner with a 9,925% win probability, followed by Yes at 75%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $346.7K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.