Discord IPO Closing Market Cap

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Discord IPO Closing Market Cap”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, No IPO by December 31, 2027 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 59.4% chance of winning. 11–14B follows in second place at 9.5%, while 8–11B sits in third with 7.3%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $154.3K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• No IPO by December 31, 2027 (59.4%): Currently commanding the highest probability, No IPO by December 31, 2027 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 59¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $66.5K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 11–14B (9.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 11–14B maintains a 9.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 10¢.
• 8–11B (7.3%): Sitting in third place with a 7.3% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 8–11B, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~23.9%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes <5B (5.4%), 14–17B (4.8%), and 20B+ (3.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 5–8B are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.

It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.

If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.

The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.

In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome No IPO by December 31, 2027 currently trades at 59.4%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 39.3%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -20%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 17–20B as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 1.8% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 8.9% — yielding an impressive +7.1% EV Gap.