Democratic VP Nominee 2028

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Democratic VP Nominee 2028”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Jared Polis is dominating the market with an overwhelming 23.8% chance of winning. Kim Kardashian follows in second place at 19.4%, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sits in third with 12.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $94.3K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Jared Polis (23.8%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Jared Polis is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 24¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $808 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Kim Kardashian (19.4%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Kim Kardashian maintains a 19.4% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 19¢.
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (12.5%): Sitting in third place with a 12.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~44.3%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Gretchen Whitmer (7%), Jon Ossoff (6.9%), and Hunter Biden (6.4%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Zohran Mamdani are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Jared Polis currently trades at 23.8%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 3%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -20.8%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Stephen A. Smith as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 1.9% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 19.7% — yielding an impressive +17.8% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Josh Shapiro (EV Gap: +15.6%) and Oprah Winfrey (EV Gap: +10.7%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.