Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?

Laut den neuesten Prognosemarktdaten zur Frage „Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?“ haben die Händler einen starken Konsens gebildet.

Derzeit dominiert December 31 den Markt mit einer überwältigenden Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 3.950%. September 30 folgt auf dem zweiten Platz mit 850%. Das Wettvolumen dieses Marktes hat bereits $122,9K erreicht, was auf großes Interesse hindeutet.

Um besser einzuschätzen, wo jedes mögliche Ergebnis steht, lässt sich der Markt anhand der impliziten Wahrscheinlichkeit und der Kontraktpreise in drei Handelsstufen unterteilen:

🥇 Stufe 1: Der dominante Spitzenreiter

• December 31 (3.950%): Mit der höchsten Wahrscheinlichkeit wird December 31 vom Orderbuch stark favorisiert. Wer auf dieses Ergebnis setzen will, sieht sich einem „Buy Yes“-Kontraktpreis von 3.950¢ gegenüber – ein Zeichen hoher Marktüberzeugung. Allein dieser Kontrakt hat $71.6K Volumen erzeugt.

🥈 Stufe 2: Die wichtigsten Herausforderer

• September 30 (850%): Als tragfähigste Alternative hält September 30 eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 850%, einzutreten. Seine „Buy Yes“-Anteile werden derzeit zu 850¢ gehandelt.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png

Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png

Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.