Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

Laut den neuesten Prognosemarktdaten zur Frage „Will Iran target an Arab country by...?“ haben die Händler einen starken Konsens gebildet.

Derzeit dominiert November 30 den Markt mit einer überwältigenden Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 88,5%. Das Wettvolumen dieses Marktes hat bereits $20,8K erreicht, was auf großes Interesse hindeutet.

Um besser einzuschätzen, wo jedes mögliche Ergebnis steht, lässt sich der Markt anhand der impliziten Wahrscheinlichkeit und der Kontraktpreise in drei Handelsstufen unterteilen:

🥇 Stufe 1: Der dominante Spitzenreiter

• November 30 (88,5%): Mit der höchsten Wahrscheinlichkeit wird November 30 vom Orderbuch stark favorisiert. Wer auf dieses Ergebnis setzen will, sieht sich einem „Buy Yes“-Kontraktpreis von 89¢ gegenüber – ein Zeichen hoher Marktüberzeugung. Allein dieser Kontrakt hat $9.9K Volumen erzeugt.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Qualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:

Surface-to-air missile strikes;

Small-arms fire;

Ground incursions;

Cyber operations;

Naval gunfire and artillery fire;

Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);

Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;

Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.

A military action will be considered directed at an Arab country if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of an Arab country, including any internal waters.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the qualifying Arab country and a consensus of credible reporting.

Während menschlicher Konsens und spekulatives Volumen den breiteren Prognosemarkt prägen, bieten unsere quantitativen Algorithmen eine datengetriebene Gegenperspektive. Durch Analyse fundamentaler Signale, zugrunde liegender Trends und historischer Verteilungen berechnet unser KI-Bewertungsmodell für jedes Ergebnis eine unabhängige „Fair-Value“-Wahrscheinlichkeit.

Der Vergleich dieses Fair Value mit dem aktuellen Marktwert deckt große Abweichungen auf – die sogenannte Erwartungswert-(EV-)Lücke. Kontrakte mit positiver EV-Lücke sind statistisch unterbewertete Ergebnisse, während eine negative EV-Lücke auf eine mögliche Marktüberreaktion hinweist.

Top-KI-Alpha & fehlbepreiste Arbitrage-Chancen

Auf Basis des jüngsten Datenmodell-Laufs fallen mehrere Schlüsselkontrakte mit deutlichen Abweichungen auf:

• Das am stärksten überbewertete Ergebnis: November 30 wird derzeit zu 88,5% gehandelt, doch unsere KI setzt den Fair Value bei nur 83,3% an. Das erzeugt eine große negative EV-Lücke von -5,2% und deutet darauf hin, dass die Masse dieses Ergebnis überbewertet.