Which party will win the Senate in 2028?

Laut den neuesten Prognosemarktdaten zur Frage „Which party will win the Senate in 2028?“ haben die Händler einen starken Konsens gebildet.

Derzeit dominiert Democratic Party den Markt mit einer überwältigenden Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 6.000%. Republican Party folgt auf dem zweiten Platz mit 3.900%. Das Wettvolumen dieses Marktes hat bereits — erreicht, was auf großes Interesse hindeutet.

Um besser einzuschätzen, wo jedes mögliche Ergebnis steht, lässt sich der Markt anhand der impliziten Wahrscheinlichkeit und der Kontraktpreise in drei Handelsstufen unterteilen:

🥇 Stufe 1: Der dominante Spitzenreiter

• Democratic Party (6.000%): Mit der höchsten Wahrscheinlichkeit wird Democratic Party vom Orderbuch stark favorisiert. Wer auf dieses Ergebnis setzen will, sieht sich einem „Buy Yes“-Kontraktpreis von 6.000¢ gegenüber – ein Zeichen hoher Marktüberzeugung.

🥈 Stufe 2: Die wichtigsten Herausforderer

• Republican Party (3.900%): Als tragfähigste Alternative hält Republican Party eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 3.900%, einzutreten. Seine „Buy Yes“-Anteile werden derzeit zu 3.900¢ gehandelt.

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2028 United States general election.

A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and wins the Vice Presidency in the 2028 United States Presidential Election. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated.

The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.

All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 121st Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2028 as of October 31, 2028 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2028. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2028 as of October 31, 2028 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.

For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.

For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.

Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.