US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?

Laut den neuesten Prognosemarktdaten zur Frage „US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?“ haben die Händler einen starken Konsens gebildet.

Derzeit dominiert December 31 den Markt mit einer überwältigenden Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 6.050%. October 31 folgt auf dem zweiten Platz mit 3.350%, während September 30 mit 1.350% auf dem dritten Platz liegt. Das Wettvolumen dieses Marktes hat bereits $120,7K erreicht, was auf großes Interesse hindeutet.

Um besser einzuschätzen, wo jedes mögliche Ergebnis steht, lässt sich der Markt anhand der impliziten Wahrscheinlichkeit und der Kontraktpreise in drei Handelsstufen unterteilen:

🥇 Stufe 1: Der dominante Spitzenreiter

• December 31 (6.050%): Mit der höchsten Wahrscheinlichkeit wird December 31 vom Orderbuch stark favorisiert. Wer auf dieses Ergebnis setzen will, sieht sich einem „Buy Yes“-Kontraktpreis von 6.050¢ gegenüber – ein Zeichen hoher Marktüberzeugung. Allein dieser Kontrakt hat $24.8K Volumen erzeugt.

🥈 Stufe 2: Die wichtigsten Herausforderer

• October 31 (3.350%): Als tragfähigste Alternative hält October 31 eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 3.350%, einzutreten. Seine „Buy Yes“-Anteile werden derzeit zu 3.350¢ gehandelt.
• September 30 (1.350%): Auf dem dritten Platz mit 1.350% Wahrscheinlichkeit zeigt der Markt eine maßvolle Skepsis gegenüber September 30 und behandelt es als Außenseiter, sofern sich die Dynamik nicht ändert.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Canada to lower US tariffs on Canada is announced by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

A diplomatic agreement to lower US tariffs on Canada refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that commits or obligates the United States to lower any tariffs on Canada, or includes the lowering of US tariffs on Canada as part of its stated terms.

Any reduction, revocation, or suspension of US tariffs on Canada, or the cancelled or suspended implementation of previously announced tariffs not yet effective, mutually announced as part of a diplomatic agreement, will qualify as lowering tariffs.

All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.

Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement.

Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries or whether the agreement qualifies, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 14 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, the announcements will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Canada and a consensus of credible reporting.