North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

Laut den neuesten Prognosemarktdaten zur Frage „North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?“ haben die Händler einen starken Konsens gebildet.

Derzeit dominiert December 31, 2028 den Markt mit einer überwältigenden Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 2.550%. December 31, 2027 folgt auf dem zweiten Platz mit 1.750%, während June 30, 2027 mit 1.550% auf dem dritten Platz liegt. Das Wettvolumen dieses Marktes hat bereits $81K erreicht, was auf großes Interesse hindeutet.

Um besser einzuschätzen, wo jedes mögliche Ergebnis steht, lässt sich der Markt anhand der impliziten Wahrscheinlichkeit und der Kontraktpreise in drei Handelsstufen unterteilen:

🥇 Stufe 1: Der dominante Spitzenreiter

• December 31, 2028 (2.550%): Mit der höchsten Wahrscheinlichkeit wird December 31, 2028 vom Orderbuch stark favorisiert. Wer auf dieses Ergebnis setzen will, sieht sich einem „Buy Yes“-Kontraktpreis von 2.550¢ gegenüber – ein Zeichen hoher Marktüberzeugung. Allein dieser Kontrakt hat $8.7K Volumen erzeugt.

🥈 Stufe 2: Die wichtigsten Herausforderer

• December 31, 2027 (1.750%): Als tragfähigste Alternative hält December 31, 2027 eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 1.750%, einzutreten. Seine „Buy Yes“-Anteile werden derzeit zu 1.750¢ gehandelt.
• June 30, 2027 (1.550%): Auf dem dritten Platz mit 1.550% Wahrscheinlichkeit zeigt der Markt eine maßvolle Skepsis gegenüber June 30, 2027 und behandelt es als Außenseiter, sofern sich die Dynamik nicht ändert.

🥉 Stufe 3: Die Long-Tail-Optionen (zusammen ~0%)

Über die Top-3 hinaus wird ein breites Feld an Makrovariablen und Außenseiter-Ergebnissen verfolgt. Auch wenn ihre Einzelwahrscheinlichkeiten niedrig sind, bilden sie wichtige Absicherungen für spekulative Händler:

• Alternative Optionen: Dazu gehören December 31, 2026 (550%).
• Spekulatives Volumen: Trotz geringer statistischer Wahrscheinlichkeit ziehen bestimmte Long-Tail-Kontrakte wie December 31, 2026 weiterhin nennenswertes Interesse an.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of North Carolina enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies.

Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the certified results, regardless of when the measure is certified or takes effect. Passage by one or both chambers, or a Governor's announced intent to sign, is not enactment.

Executive orders, agency orders, and other measures which are not statutory or constitutional do not qualify as enactment regardless of legal force. A provision removed by line-item veto is not enacted unless the veto is overridden as to that item. The operative text of the measure at enactment controls; provisions amended out before enactment do not qualify.

The moratorium provision must be mandatory on its face. A statute that merely authorizes a state agency or the Governor to impose a moratorium at their discretion does not qualify. A statute that directs suspension of approvals or interconnection upon a specified condition qualifies only if the condition is objectively determinable and is not deferred to be determined by the implementing agency's findings, certifications, or completion of its own proceedings.

This market resolves based on the date of enactment, not the effective date. Resolution will not be affected by failure to implement a law, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry that follows a relevant enactment, or an effective date that comes after the date of enactment.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the state government of North Carolina; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.