How many Jensen Huang affairs will be reported by December 31?

Laut den neuesten Prognosemarktdaten zur Frage „How many Jensen Huang affairs will be reported by December 31?“ haben die Händler einen starken Konsens gebildet.

Derzeit dominiert 3 den Markt mit einer überwältigenden Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 53%. 4 folgt auf dem zweiten Platz mit 25,5%, während 5 mit 6,5% auf dem dritten Platz liegt. Das Wettvolumen dieses Marktes hat bereits $89,2K erreicht, was auf großes Interesse hindeutet.

Um besser einzuschätzen, wo jedes mögliche Ergebnis steht, lässt sich der Markt anhand der impliziten Wahrscheinlichkeit und der Kontraktpreise in drei Handelsstufen unterteilen:

🥇 Stufe 1: Der dominante Spitzenreiter

• 3 (53%): Mit der höchsten Wahrscheinlichkeit wird 3 vom Orderbuch stark favorisiert. Wer auf dieses Ergebnis setzen will, sieht sich einem „Buy Yes“-Kontraktpreis von 53¢ gegenüber – ein Zeichen hoher Marktüberzeugung. Allein dieser Kontrakt hat $32.0K Volumen erzeugt.

🥈 Stufe 2: Die wichtigsten Herausforderer

• 4 (25,5%): Als tragfähigste Alternative hält 4 eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 25,5%, einzutreten. Seine „Buy Yes“-Anteile werden derzeit zu 26¢ gehandelt.
• 5 (6,5%): Auf dem dritten Platz mit 6,5% Wahrscheinlichkeit zeigt der Markt eine maßvolle Skepsis gegenüber 5 und behandelt es als Außenseiter, sofern sich die Dynamik nicht ändert.

🥉 Stufe 3: Die Long-Tail-Optionen (zusammen ~15%)

Über die Top-3 hinaus wird ein breites Feld an Makrovariablen und Außenseiter-Ergebnissen verfolgt. Auch wenn ihre Einzelwahrscheinlichkeiten niedrig sind, bilden sie wichtige Absicherungen für spekulative Händler:

• Alternative Optionen: Dazu gehören 6 (6,5%) und 7+ (6%).
• Spekulatives Volumen: Trotz geringer statistischer Wahrscheinlichkeit ziehen bestimmte Long-Tail-Kontrakte wie 6 weiterhin nennenswertes Interesse an.

On November 8, 2026, Jensen Huang acknowledged in a message to NVIDIA employees that he had been unfaithful to his wife; news reports have identified the woman involved as Alice Huang. On November 11, 2026, The New York Times reported that Huang had also had an affair with Kimberly Powell, NVIDIA’s vice president of healthcare; Huang, Powell and NVIDIA have not confirmed that report. On November 12, 2026, Reuters reported that Huang had an intimate relationship with a second NVIDIA employee, whom it did not name.

This market will resolve according to the number of people with whom Jensen Huang has been reported to have had an affair as of December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The count starts at three (Alice Huang, Kimberly Powell and the NVIDIA employee reported by Reuters) and increases by one for each additional person who is the subject of a qualifying report published by a qualifying outlet between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An affair refers to a romantic or sexual relationship outside Jensen Huang’s marriage. The affair itself may have taken place at any time during his marriage; only the timing of the report matters.

The qualifying outlets are The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Financial Times, Reuters, the Associated Press, CNN, Bloomberg, ABC News, CBS News, NBC News and Fox News. Only news articles published on an outlet’s own platform qualify; editorials, opinion pieces, columns, broadcast or video segments, podcasts, social media posts and sponsored content will not qualify.

A report will qualify if it meets any of the following:

1. presents the affair as fact;

2. reports the affair based on the outlet’s own sourcing, such as people familiar with the matter, documents or recordings (as in The New York Times’ November 11, 2026 report on Kimberly Powell);

3. reports an alleged affair between Jensen Huang and a specific person other than Alice Huang, Kimberly Powell, the employee reported by Reuters or anyone else already counted, regardless of whether the outlet presents the allegation as credible; or

4. reports that Jensen Huang, directly or through his official or legal representatives, has acknowledged such an affair.

Reports under 1 or 2 qualify whether or not the person involved is named, provided they clearly distinguish that person from Alice Huang, Kimberly Powell, the unnamed NVIDIA employee reported by Reuters and anyone else already counted. A report does so if it, or other reporting from a qualifying outlet, makes clear that the person is not someone already counted (e.g., by describing them as a third NVIDIA employee with whom Huang had a relationship, or as someone who has never worked at NVIDIA). A report confirming that Huang had affairs with at least a stated number of people will set the count to that number if it is higher than the count otherwise established.

If it is unclear whether a person in a report is someone already counted, that person will be treated as already counted, and this market will resolve to the lower number.

The following will not add to the count:

(i) reports that name or otherwise identify the NVIDIA employee reported by Reuters or anyone else already counted;

(ii) reports about any person, named or unnamed, that do not make clear, on their own or together with other reporting from a qualifying outlet, that the person is not someone already counted;

(iii) general references to Huang’s infidelity (e.g., “Huang has been unfaithful for a while”); and

(iv) allegations about an unnamed person that the outlet only relays from others, such as social media posts or other outlets’ reporting.

A report under 4 qualifies only if it reports an acknowledgment, including one in private testimony that has been made public, that names a person who is distinguished from those already counted as described above, or makes clear that Huang was unfaithful with more people than the count otherwise established (for example, by acknowledging affairs with four or more people). Reports of acknowledgments that are not explicit and unambiguous, or that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest or immediately clarified as not being genuine, will not qualify.

Alice Huang, Kimberly Powell and the NVIDIA employee reported by Reuters count toward the total even though they were reported before market creation. Any additional person counts only if a qualifying report about them is first published between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Reports that only reference or link to articles published before market creation will not qualify unless they themselves meet the requirements above, and an article first published before market creation will qualify only if a later update first makes it meet those requirements, in which case the time of the update governs.

The resolution source for this market will be reporting from the qualifying outlets; for acknowledgments, official information from Jensen Huang or his official or legal representatives may also be used.

Während menschlicher Konsens und spekulatives Volumen den breiteren Prognosemarkt prägen, bieten unsere quantitativen Algorithmen eine datengetriebene Gegenperspektive. Durch Analyse fundamentaler Signale, zugrunde liegender Trends und historischer Verteilungen berechnet unser KI-Bewertungsmodell für jedes Ergebnis eine unabhängige „Fair-Value“-Wahrscheinlichkeit.

Der Vergleich dieses Fair Value mit dem aktuellen Marktwert deckt große Abweichungen auf – die sogenannte Erwartungswert-(EV-)Lücke. Kontrakte mit positiver EV-Lücke sind statistisch unterbewertete Ergebnisse, während eine negative EV-Lücke auf eine mögliche Marktüberreaktion hinweist.

Top-KI-Alpha & fehlbepreiste Arbitrage-Chancen

Auf Basis des jüngsten Datenmodell-Laufs fallen mehrere Schlüsselkontrakte mit deutlichen Abweichungen auf:

• Das am stärksten überbewertete Ergebnis: 4 wird derzeit zu 25,5% gehandelt, doch unsere KI setzt den Fair Value bei nur 13,2% an. Das erzeugt eine große negative EV-Lücke von -12,3% und deutet darauf hin, dass die Masse dieses Ergebnis überbewertet.