2028 Presidential Election: Virginia Winner

Laut den neuesten Prognosemarktdaten zur Frage „2028 Presidential Election: Virginia Winner“ haben die Händler einen starken Konsens gebildet.

Derzeit dominiert Democratic Party den Markt mit einer überwältigenden Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 4.650%. Republican Party folgt auf dem zweiten Platz mit 4.300%. Das Wettvolumen dieses Marktes hat bereits $60 erreicht, was auf großes Interesse hindeutet.

Um besser einzuschätzen, wo jedes mögliche Ergebnis steht, lässt sich der Markt anhand der impliziten Wahrscheinlichkeit und der Kontraktpreise in drei Handelsstufen unterteilen:

🥇 Stufe 1: Der dominante Spitzenreiter

• Democratic Party (4.650%): Mit der höchsten Wahrscheinlichkeit wird Democratic Party vom Orderbuch stark favorisiert. Wer auf dieses Ergebnis setzen will, sieht sich einem „Buy Yes“-Kontraktpreis von 4.650¢ gegenüber – ein Zeichen hoher Marktüberzeugung. Allein dieser Kontrakt hat $40 Volumen erzeugt.

🥈 Stufe 2: Die wichtigsten Herausforderer

• Republican Party (4.300%): Als tragfähigste Alternative hält Republican Party eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 4.300%, einzutreten. Seine „Buy Yes“-Anteile werden derzeit zu 4.300¢ gehandelt.

The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Virginia in the 2028 Presidential Election.

A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have.

This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used.

The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

If the statewide Virginia results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used.

This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.