Cornell President out by October 31?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Cornell President out by October 31?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Yes is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,050% chance of winning. No follows in second place at 4,950%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $66, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Yes (5,050%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Yes is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,050¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• No (4,950%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, No maintains a 4,950% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,950¢.

This market resolves to “Yes” if Michael Kotlikoff’s departure as President of Cornell University is officially announced by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The departure will be considered to be announced when Michael Kotlikoff, Cornell University, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Michael Kotlikoff has ceased or will cease to hold the position of President of Cornell University. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when Michael Kotlikoff formally leaves the position. Announcements of Michael Kotlikoff’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.

Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).

Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to Michael Kotlikoff’s duties as President of Cornell University do not qualify.

The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that Michael Kotlikoff is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that Michael Kotlikoff will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that Michael Kotlikoff plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than Michael Kotlikoff, Cornell University, or their respective authorized representatives.

If Michael Kotlikoff formally ceases to hold the position of President of Cornell University without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Michael Kotlikoff and Cornell University; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.