El Salvador vs. Jamaica
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “El Salvador vs. Jamaica”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, Jamaica is dominating the market with an overwhelming 44.5% chance of winning. El Salvador follows in second place at 27.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $121.3K, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- Jamaica (44.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Jamaica is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 45¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $84.1K in volume.
🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers
- El Salvador (27.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, El Salvador maintains a 27.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 28¢.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamaica | 44.5% | $84.1K | 45¢ | 56¢ |
| 2 | El Salvador | 27.5% | $16.9K | 28¢ | 73¢ |
Result Rules
This event is for the upcoming Concacaf Nations League game, scheduled for Friday, October 2, 2026 between El Salvador and Jamaica.
AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps
While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.
Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.
Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities
Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:
- The Most Overvalued Outcome El Salvador currently trades at 27.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 27%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -0.5%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
- The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Jamaica as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 44.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 46.3% — yielding an impressive +1.8% EV Gap.
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| JamaicaBest EV | 44.5% | 46.3% | +1.8% |
| El Salvador | 27.5% | 27.0% | -0.5% |
Trade Activities
Here is the trade activities for this event.
Oct 2, 2026
- 09:17 PMMOmooseborzoi$28.80
Bought 64 Yes for Will Jamaica win on 2026-10-02? at 0.45
- 09:14 PMMOmooseborzoi$9.45
Bought 21 Yes for Will Jamaica win on 2026-10-02? at 0.45
- 09:14 PMMOmooseborzoi$14.40
Bought 32 Yes for Will Jamaica win on 2026-10-02? at 0.45
- 09:13 PMMOmooseborzoi$48.15
Bought 107 Yes for Will Jamaica win on 2026-10-02? at 0.45
- 09:13 PMMOmooseborzoi$22.50
Bought 50 Yes for Will Jamaica win on 2026-10-02? at 0.45
- 09:12 PMGEGeorgette98$1.50
Bought 5.357143 Yes for Will El Salvador vs. Jamaica end in a draw? at 0.28
- 09:12 PMMOmooseborzoi$4.50
Bought 10 Yes for Will Jamaica win on 2026-10-02? at 0.45
- 09:10 PMGAGatio$50.00
Bought 111.111112 Yes for Will Jamaica win on 2026-10-02? at 0.45
- 09:09 PMMOmooseborzoi$96.30
Bought 214 Yes for Will Jamaica win on 2026-10-02? at 0.45
- 09:09 PMFAfajarwo$6.00
Bought 13.333334 Yes for Will Jamaica win on 2026-10-02? at 0.45
- 09:08 PMMOmooseborzoi$164.25
Bought 365 Yes for Will Jamaica win on 2026-10-02? at 0.45
- 09:08 PMMOmooseborzoi$76.05
Bought 169 Yes for Will Jamaica win on 2026-10-02? at 0.45
Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "El Salvador vs. Jamaica"?
As of the latest update, Jamaica leads the field as the frontrunner with a 44.5% win probability, followed by El Salvador at 27.5%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $121.3K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.
How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?
The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.
Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?
Our latest run flags Jamaica as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 44.5% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 46.3% — an Expected Value gap of +1.8%, making it the premium value play in this pool.
Is the market consensus overreacting to any specific outcome?
Yes — our data suggests a notable overreaction around El Salvador. The crowd has pushed its live Trade Value up to 27.5%, yet our Fair Value assessment puts its real likelihood at just 27%, a negative EV Gap of -0.5% that signals the contract is overpriced.