Nicaragua vs. Costa Rica
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Nicaragua vs. Costa Rica”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, Costa Rica is dominating the market with an overwhelming 66% chance of winning. Draw (Nicaragua vs. Costa Rica) follows in second place at 21.5%, while Nicaragua sits in third with 13.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $140.8K, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- Costa Rica (66%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Costa Rica is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 66¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $82.5K in volume.
🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers
- Draw (Nicaragua vs. Costa Rica) (21.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Draw (Nicaragua vs. Costa Rica) maintains a 21.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 22¢.
- Nicaragua (13.5%): Sitting in third place with a 13.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Nicaragua, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Costa Rica | 66.0% | $82.5K | 66¢ | 34¢ |
| 2 | Draw (Nicaragua vs. Costa Rica) | 21.5% | $33.0K | 22¢ | 79¢ |
| 3 | Nicaragua | 13.5% | $25.4K | 14¢ | 87¢ |
Result Rules
This event is for the upcoming Concacaf Nations League game, scheduled for Thursday, October 1, 2026 between Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps
While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.
Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.
Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities
Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:
- The Most Overvalued Outcome Costa Rica currently trades at 66%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 63.1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -2.9%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Costa Rica | 66.0% | 63.1% | -2.9% |
| Draw (Nicaragua vs. Costa Rica) | 21.5% | 21.2% | -0.3% |
| Nicaragua | 13.5% | 12.4% | -1.1% |
Trade Activities
Here is the trade activities for this event.
Oct 1, 2026
- 09:20 PMFLFlaznorp$0.21
Bought 0.26 No for Will Nicaragua vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? at 0.82
- 09:20 PMUPUpTheBlues$4.51
Bought 5.5 No for Will Nicaragua vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? at 0.82
- 09:19 PM0X0xFCe686833A8F7DeDe97BbAA6293906Eb52FabD7f-1771158416989$5.00
Bought 5.4945 No for Will Nicaragua win on 2026-10-01? at 0.91
- 09:15 PMOMOm96$100.00
Bought 136.9863 Yes for Will Costa Rica win on 2026-10-01? at 0.73
- 09:13 PMFLFlaznorp$2.27
Bought 8.407408 No for Will Costa Rica win on 2026-10-01? at 0.27
- 09:13 PMYOyoucanbuythisbot$1.08
Bought 4 No for Will Costa Rica win on 2026-10-01? at 0.27
- 09:13 PMYOyoucanbuythisbot$8.37
Bought 31 No for Will Costa Rica win on 2026-10-01? at 0.27
- 09:13 PMYOyoucanbuythisbot$1.08
Bought 4 No for Will Costa Rica win on 2026-10-01? at 0.27
- 09:13 PMMOmooseborzoi$1.62
Bought 6 No for Will Costa Rica win on 2026-10-01? at 0.27
- 09:13 PMFLFlaznorp$124.98
Bought 462.888889 No for Will Costa Rica win on 2026-10-01? at 0.27
- 09:13 PMFLFlaznorp$3.82
Bought 14.148149 No for Will Costa Rica win on 2026-10-01? at 0.27
- 09:13 PMUPUpTheBlues$27.47
Bought 33.5 No for Will Nicaragua vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? at 0.82
Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "Nicaragua vs. Costa Rica"?
As of the latest update, Costa Rica leads the field as the frontrunner with a 66% win probability, followed by Draw (Nicaragua vs. Costa Rica) at 21.5% and Nicaragua at 13.5%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $140.8K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.
How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?
The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.
Is the market consensus overreacting to any specific outcome?
Yes — our data suggests a notable overreaction around Costa Rica. The crowd has pushed its live Trade Value up to 66%, yet our Fair Value assessment puts its real likelihood at just 63.1%, a negative EV Gap of -2.9% that signals the contract is overpriced.