Haiti vs. United States

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Haiti vs. United States”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, United States is dominating the market with an overwhelming 82.5% chance of winning. Draw (Haiti vs. United States) follows in second place at 10.5%, while Haiti sits in third with 7.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $250.4K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• United States (82.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, United States is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 83¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $189.2K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Draw (Haiti vs. United States) (10.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Draw (Haiti vs. United States) maintains a 10.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 11¢.
• Haiti (7.5%): Sitting in third place with a 7.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Haiti, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

In the upcoming Concacaf Nations League game between Haiti and United States, originally scheduled for Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 4:30 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event):

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome United States currently trades at 82.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 65.2%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -17.3%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.