Guatemala vs. Suriname
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Guatemala vs. Suriname”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, Guatemala is dominating the market with an overwhelming 45.5% chance of winning. Suriname follows in second place at 28.5%, while Draw (Guatemala vs. Suriname) sits in third with 26.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $88.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- Guatemala (45.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Guatemala is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 46¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $90.6K in volume.
🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers
- Suriname (28.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Suriname maintains a 28.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 28¢.
- Draw (Guatemala vs. Suriname) (26.5%): Sitting in third place with a 26.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Draw (Guatemala vs. Suriname), treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guatemala | 45.5% | $90.6K | 46¢ | 55¢ |
| 2 | Suriname | 28.5% | $14.9K | 28¢ | 72¢ |
| 3 | Draw (Guatemala vs. Suriname) | 26.5% | $1.1K | 27¢ | 74¢ |
Result Rules
This event is for the upcoming Concacaf Nations League game, scheduled for Monday, October 5, 2026 between Guatemala and Suriname.
AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps
While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.
Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.
Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities
Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:
- The Most Overvalued Outcome Draw (Guatemala vs. Suriname) currently trades at 26.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 21.7%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -4.8%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
- The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Suriname as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 28.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 30.8% — yielding an impressive +2.3% EV Gap.
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guatemala | 45.5% | 43.9% | -1.6% |
| SurinameBest EV | 28.5% | 30.8% | +2.3% |
| Draw (Guatemala vs. Suriname) | 26.5% | 21.7% | -4.8% |
Trade Activities
Here is the trade activities for this event.
Oct 5, 2026
- 09:26 PMNInigiri99$4.68
Bought 9 Yes for Will Guatemala win on 2026-10-05? at 0.52
- 09:23 PMNInigiri99$46.80
Bought 90 Yes for Will Guatemala win on 2026-10-05? at 0.52
- 09:23 PMNInigiri99$46.28
Bought 89 Yes for Will Guatemala win on 2026-10-05? at 0.52
- 09:20 PMNInigiri99$9.88
Bought 19 Yes for Will Guatemala win on 2026-10-05? at 0.52
- 09:20 PMNInigiri99$7.28
Bought 14 Yes for Will Guatemala win on 2026-10-05? at 0.52
- 09:20 PMNInigiri99$40.04
Bought 77 Yes for Will Guatemala win on 2026-10-05? at 0.52
- 09:20 PMHAhamid1919$5.01
Bought 6.592104 No for Will Suriname win on 2026-10-05? at 0.76
- 09:19 PMMAMatchdayMarkets$50.00
Bought 65.78947 No for Will Suriname win on 2026-10-05? at 0.76
- 09:19 PMNInigiri99$22.25
Bought 89 Yes for Will Suriname win on 2026-10-05? at 0.25
- 09:19 PMNInigiri99$4.68
Bought 9 Yes for Will Guatemala win on 2026-10-05? at 0.52
- 09:19 PMNInigiri99$2.50
Bought 10 Yes for Will Suriname win on 2026-10-05? at 0.25
- 09:19 PMNInigiri99$39.00
Bought 156 Yes for Will Suriname win on 2026-10-05? at 0.25
Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "Guatemala vs. Suriname"?
As of the latest update, Guatemala leads the field as the frontrunner with a 45.5% win probability, followed by Suriname at 28.5% and Draw (Guatemala vs. Suriname) at 26.5%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $88.2K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.
How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?
The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.
Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?
Our latest run flags Suriname as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 28.5% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 30.8% — an Expected Value gap of +2.3%, making it the premium value play in this pool.
Is the market consensus overreacting to any specific outcome?
Yes — our data suggests a notable overreaction around Draw (Guatemala vs. Suriname). The crowd has pushed its live Trade Value up to 26.5%, yet our Fair Value assessment puts its real likelihood at just 21.7%, a negative EV Gap of -4.8% that signals the contract is overpriced.