Costa Rica vs. Haiti

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Costa Rica vs. Haiti”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Costa Rica is dominating the market with an overwhelming 38.5% chance of winning. Haiti follows in second place at 37.5%, while Draw (Costa Rica vs. Haiti) sits in third with 24.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $141.6K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Costa Rica (38.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Costa Rica is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 39¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $12.0K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Haiti (37.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Haiti maintains a 37.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 38¢.
• Draw (Costa Rica vs. Haiti) (24.5%): Sitting in third place with a 24.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Draw (Costa Rica vs. Haiti), treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

This event is for the upcoming Concacaf Nations League game, scheduled for Sunday, October 4, 2026 between Costa Rica and Haiti.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Haiti currently trades at 37.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 34.6%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -2.9%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Draw (Costa Rica vs. Haiti) as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 24.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 48.1% — yielding an impressive +23.6% EV Gap.