Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, October 31, 2026 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,700% chance of winning. September 30, 2026 follows in second place at 700%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $2K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• October 31, 2026 (4,700%): Currently commanding the highest probability, October 31, 2026 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,700¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $12 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• September 30, 2026 (700%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, September 30, 2026 maintains a 700% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 700¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.

If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.