1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV 07 Elversberg

$123.7K Vol
Oct 10, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
Yes 53.5%
No 46.5%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV 07 Elversberg”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 1. FC Union Berlin is dominating the market with an overwhelming 40.5% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $123.7K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • 1. FC Union Berlin (40.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 1. FC Union Berlin is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 41¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $47.2K in volume.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
11. FC Union Berlin40.5%$47.2K41¢60¢

Result Rules

This event is for the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for Saturday, October 10, 2026 between 1. FC Union Berlin and SV 07 Elversberg.

AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

  • The Most Overvalued Outcome 1. FC Union Berlin currently trades at 40.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 26.9%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -13.6%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
1. FC Union Berlin40.5%26.9%-13.6%

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Oct 10, 2026

  • 09:06 AM
    0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396
    $2.85

    Bought 7.125 Yes for Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-10-10? at 0.4

  • 09:01 AM
    HAhamid1919
    $5.01

    Bought 6.68 No for Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw? at 0.75

  • 09:00 AM
    MAMatchdayMarkets
    $50.00

    Bought 66.666664 No for Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw? at 0.75

  • 09:00 AM
    0X0xc8D9C0Df291315f2184eCdaB4ED8247618aCdF36-1768237865742
    $50.00

    Bought 192.307693 Yes for Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw? at 0.26

  • 08:40 AM
    YIyishan666
    $2.00

    Bought 5 Yes for Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-10-10? at 0.4

  • 08:23 AM
    NEneutralwave23
    $12.12

    Bought 30.3 Yes for Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-10-10? at 0.4

  • 08:08 AM
    HEheadach3
    $6.24

    Bought 24 Yes for Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw? at 0.26

  • 08:08 AM
    0X0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0
    $1.00

    Bought 3.846154 Yes for Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw? at 0.26

  • 08:06 AM
    BEbegemotmotya33
    $1.00

    Sold 2.94 Yes for Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-10-10? at 0.34

  • 08:00 AM
    ARArmagedon1
    $1.50

    Bought 2.459017 No for Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-10-10? at 0.61

  • 07:36 AM
    ——
    $15.00

    Bought 57.692308 Yes for Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw? at 0.26

  • 07:36 AM
    ——
    $25.00

    Bought 62.5 Yes for Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-10-10? at 0.4

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

FL1
Flaznorp
Event PnL
+$10.45
Volume
$1,283.37
Positions
YesNoYes
VE2
VeryLucky888
Event PnL
+$4.19
Volume
$915.01
Positions
NoYesNo
A53
0xa5ef…2966
Event PnL
+$601.50
Volume
$900.00
Positions
NoNoNo
WE4
WeBuyHighWeSelllow
Event PnL
-$1.85
Volume
$370.76
Positions
No
PR5
Probably-Likely
Event PnL
-$11.93
Volume
$340.91
Positions
Yes
GC6
GC-P
Event PnL
+$0.67
Volume
$288.70
Positions
NoNoYes
BE7
bettobeat
Event PnL
-$1.43
Volume
$285.71
Positions
Yes
C88
0xc8D9…5742
Event PnL
+$0.96
Volume
$192.31
Positions
Yes

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV 07 Elversberg"?

As of the latest update, 1. FC Union Berlin leads the field as the frontrunner with a 40.5% win probability. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $123.7K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?

The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.

Is the market consensus overreacting to any specific outcome?

Yes — our data suggests a notable overreaction around 1. FC Union Berlin. The crowd has pushed its live Trade Value up to 40.5%, yet our Fair Value assessment puts its real likelihood at just 26.9%, a negative EV Gap of -13.6% that signals the contract is overpriced.

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