Bulgaria Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Bulgaria Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 24%+ is dominating the market with an overwhelming 72% chance of winning. 22-24% follows in second place at 17.5%, while 20-22% sits in third with 6.2%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $113.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 24%+ (72%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 24%+ is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 72¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $67.9K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 22-24% (17.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 22-24% maintains a 17.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 18¢.
• 20-22% (6.2%): Sitting in third place with a 6.2% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 20-22%, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~4.3%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes <18% (2.7%), and 18-20% (1.9%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like <18% are still attracting notable interest.

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on November 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the second round of the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2021 example: https://results.cik.bg/pvrns2021/tur2/aktivnost/index.html).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

If the results of this election are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия, CIK) (e.g., https://results.cik.bg/).

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 20-22% currently trades at 6.2%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 1.9%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -4.3%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies <18% as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 2.7% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 13.1% — yielding an impressive +10.4% EV Gap.