Mirassol FC vs. EC Vitória
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Mirassol FC vs. EC Vitória”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, Mirassol FC is dominating the market with an overwhelming 55.5% chance of winning. Draw (Mirassol FC vs. EC Vitória) follows in second place at 25.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $148.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- Mirassol FC (55.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Mirassol FC is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 56¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $30.1K in volume.
🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers
- Draw (Mirassol FC vs. EC Vitória) (25.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Draw (Mirassol FC vs. EC Vitória) maintains a 25.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 26¢.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mirassol FC | 55.5% | $30.1K | 56¢ | 44¢ |
| 2 | Draw (Mirassol FC vs. EC Vitória) | 25.5% | $48.2K | 26¢ | 75¢ |
Result Rules
This event is for the upcoming Brazil Série A game, scheduled for Sunday, September 13, 2026 between Mirassol FC and EC Vitória.
AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps
While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.
Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.
Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities
Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:
- The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Mirassol FC as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 55.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 57.6% — yielding an impressive +2.1% EV Gap.
- Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Draw (Mirassol FC vs. EC Vitória) (EV Gap: +1.5%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol FCBest EV | 55.5% | 57.6% | +2.1% |
| Draw (Mirassol FC vs. EC Vitória) | 25.5% | 27.0% | +1.5% |
Trade Activities
Here is the trade activities for this event.
Sep 13, 2026
- 09:05 PMJAjackinv1lvl2$350.01
Sold 350.01 No for Will EC Vitória win on 2026-09-13? at 1
- 09:05 PMAHaHjCz$0.21
Sold 21.13 Yes for Will EC Vitória win on 2026-09-13? at 0.01
- 09:05 PMSESecondhandvinyl$44.50
Bought 44.95 No for Will EC Vitória win on 2026-09-13? at 0.99
- 09:04 PMDIdips.$117.50
Bought 125 Yes for Will Mirassol FC vs. EC Vitória end in a draw? at 0.94
- 09:04 PMSESecondhandvinyl$11.25
Bought 11.97 No for Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-09-13? at 0.94
- 09:04 PMSESecondhandvinyl$38.56
Bought 40.58946 No for Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-09-13? at 0.95
- 09:04 PMSESecondhandvinyl$38.15
Bought 40.5851 No for Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-09-13? at 0.94
- 09:04 PMSESecondhandvinyl$38.15
Bought 40.5851 No for Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-09-13? at 0.94
- 09:04 PMSESecondhandvinyl$38.15
Bought 40.5851 No for Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-09-13? at 0.94
- 09:04 PMSESecondhandvinyl$27.56
Bought 29.319133 No for Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-09-13? at 0.94
- 09:04 PMSESecondhandvinyl$38.15
Bought 40.5851 No for Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-09-13? at 0.94
- 09:04 PMSESecondhandvinyl$38.15
Bought 40.5851 No for Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-09-13? at 0.94
Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "Mirassol FC vs. EC Vitória"?
As of the latest update, Mirassol FC leads the field as the frontrunner with a 55.5% win probability, followed by Draw (Mirassol FC vs. EC Vitória) at 25.5%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $148.2K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.
How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?
The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.
Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?
Our latest run flags Mirassol FC as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 55.5% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 57.6% — an Expected Value gap of +2.1%, making it the premium value play in this pool.
Are there any high-value dark horse options hidden in the long-tail data?
Absolutely. Beyond the headline outcomes, our model highlights under-the-radar potential in lower-ranked options. Draw (Mirassol FC vs. EC Vitória) holds a positive EV Gap of +1.5%. These contracts are discounted by live order books despite stronger quantitative backing.