1. FC Nürnberg vs. VfL Wolfsburg

$121.1K Vol
Oct 10, 2026
Resolved
Probability Trend
No 100.0%
Yes 0.1%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “1. FC Nürnberg vs. VfL Wolfsburg”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 1. FC Nürnberg is dominating the market with an overwhelming 37.5% chance of winning. VfL Wolfsburg follows in second place at 36.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $121.1K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • 1. FC Nürnberg (37.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 1. FC Nürnberg is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 38¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $55.8K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

  • VfL Wolfsburg (36.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, VfL Wolfsburg maintains a 36.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 37¢.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
11. FC Nürnberg37.5%$55.8K38¢63¢
2VfL Wolfsburg36.5%$29.2K37¢64¢

Result Rules

This event is for the upcoming 2. Bundesliga game, scheduled for Saturday, October 10, 2026 between 1. FC Nürnberg and VfL Wolfsburg.

AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

  • The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies VfL Wolfsburg as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 36.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 36.9% — yielding an impressive +0.4% EV Gap.
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
1. FC Nürnberg37.5%37.6%+0.2%
VfL WolfsburgBest EV36.5%36.9%+0.4%

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Oct 10, 2026

  • 09:02 PM
    GEGenz88
    $130.04

    Sold 130.04 Yes for Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? at 1

  • 08:55 PM
    0X0x31C7BF2B86812Bb8BB125e56C6ca14734889EcA3-1774250841899
    $653.84

    Sold 653.84 No for Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-10-10? at 1

  • 08:50 PM
    ——
    $5.83

    Sold 5.83 No for Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-10-10? at 1

  • 08:38 PM
    WAWater6677
    $82.60

    Sold 82.6 Yes for Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? at 1

  • 08:33 PM
    0X0x01AF8bb6ABBCFF287E8a726a1C5F39Dd0B427BC2-1775060247423
    $24.59

    Sold 24.59 No for Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-10-10? at 1

  • 08:32 PM
    SMsmartcombo
    $0.00

    Bought 4360 No for Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? at 0

  • 08:32 PM
    SMsmartcombo
    $0.00

    Bought 4320 Yes for Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-10-10? at 0

  • 08:32 PM
    MAmatsuka
    $0.00

    Bought 1501.5 No for Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? at 0

  • 08:31 PM
    TATahweed
    $25.64

    Sold 25.64 Yes for Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? at 1

  • 08:29 PM
    MAmavengui10
    $1.04

    Sold 1.04 No for Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-10-10? at 1

  • 08:29 PM
    0X0xe706F3cE0c0aA914BB4e42a20c1c3CDCD70589bc-1722885097902
    $269.65

    Sold 269.65 No for Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-10-10? at 1

  • 08:28 PM
    ——
    $0.00

    Bought 1010 No for Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? at 0

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

1L1
1l2ihj34li12u34
Event PnL
-$2,100.23
Volume
$6,087.63
Positions
Yes
UP2
UpTheBlues
Event PnL
+$1,061.15
Volume
$4,052.87
Positions
NoYesNo
NO3
NO.9kami
Event PnL
-$1,914.52
Volume
$3,419.05
Positions
Yes
RN4
RN1
Event PnL
+$1,687.26
Volume
$3,035.45
Positions
NoYesYes
VE5
VeryLucky888
Event PnL
-$11.89
Volume
$2,550.85
Positions
No
GC6
GC-P
Event PnL
-$11.07
Volume
$2,155.11
Positions
YesNo
E07
0xe020…f39b
Event PnL
+$677.81
Volume
$2,023.30
Positions
No
FL8
Flaznorp
Event PnL
-$376.78
Volume
$1,998.96
Positions
NoNoYes

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "1. FC Nürnberg vs. VfL Wolfsburg"?

As of the latest update, 1. FC Nürnberg leads the field as the frontrunner with a 37.5% win probability, followed by VfL Wolfsburg at 36.5%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $121.1K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?

The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.

Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?

Our latest run flags VfL Wolfsburg as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 36.5% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 36.9% — an Expected Value gap of +0.4%, making it the premium value play in this pool.

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