Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 25-29 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 69.5% chance of winning. 30-34 follows in second place at 25.5%, while 20-24 sits in third with 3.6%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $127.7K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 25-29 (69.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 25-29 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 70¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $57.7K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 30-34 (25.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 30-34 maintains a 25.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 26¢.
• 20-24 (3.6%): Sitting in third place with a 3.6% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 20-24, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~1.4%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes <20 (2.2%), and 35+ (0.4%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like <20 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 25-29 currently trades at 69.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 56.8%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -12.7%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 20-24 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 3.6% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 13.4% — yielding an impressive +9.8% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include <20 (EV Gap: +7.5%) and 35+ (EV Gap: +4.3%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.