August Unemployment Rate

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “August Unemployment Rate”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 4.1% is dominating the market with an overwhelming 35% chance of winning. 4.2% follows in second place at 33%, while 4.0% sits in third with 14.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $35.4K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 4.1% (35%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 4.1% is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 35¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $8.3K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 4.2% (33%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 4.2% maintains a 33% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 33¢.
• 4.0% (14.5%): Sitting in third place with a 14.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 4.0%, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~17.5%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 4.3% (12%), 3.9% (4.4%), and 4.4% (2.1%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 4.5% are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.

The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 4.1% currently trades at 35%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 23.8%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -11.2%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 4.3% as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 12% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 12.1% — yielding an impressive +0.1% EV Gap.