Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas

$311K Vol
Sep 30, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
Juan Pablo Varillas 77.3%
Murkel Dellien 22.8%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Completed Match is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,000% chance of winning. Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas Game Spread +/-5.5 follows in second place at 950%, while Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas sits in third with 460%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $311K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • Completed Match (5,000%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Completed Match is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,000¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $5.3K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

  • Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas Game Spread +/-5.5 (950%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas Game Spread +/-5.5 maintains a 950% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 950¢.
  • Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas (460%): Sitting in third place with a 460% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
1Completed Match5000.0%$5.3K5000¢-4900¢
2Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas Game Spread +/-5.5950.0%950¢-850¢
3Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas460.0%$305.7K460¢-360¢

Result Rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Murkel Dellien and Juan Pablo Varillas in the Buenos Aires 2, originally scheduled for September 23, 2026 at 11:00AM ET.

This market will resolve to 'Murkel Dellien' if Murkel Dellien advances against Juan Pablo Varillas.

This market will resolve to 'Juan Pablo Varillas' if Juan Pablo Varillas advances against Murkel Dellien.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Sep 23, 2026

  • 12:16 PM
    HUHUB-1
    $30.50

    Bought 610 No for Buenos Aires 2: Completed Match: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas at 0.05

  • 11:36 AM
    0X0x376FBec636b920eB563C826750EB498728850Cb6-1764010232848
    $1.00

    Bought 1.219511 Juan Pablo Varillas for Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas at 0.82

  • 11:00 AM
    DEdentleightadman
    $1.00

    Bought 1.724138 Under for Dellien vs. Varillas: Match O/U 21.5 at 0.58

  • 10:28 AM
    0X0x193a26284500cBae8e0cCd445b4BFfc45F0Ed2a9-1790111418433
    $1.00

    Bought 5.263158 Murkel Dellien for Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas at 0.19

  • 10:24 AM
    DRdrex0o
    $60.00

    Bought 83.333332 Under 2.5 for Murkel Dellien vs. Juan Pablo Varillas: Total Sets O/U 2.5 at 0.72

  • 10:24 AM
    DEdentleightadman
    $1.00

    Bought 1.666667 Juan Pablo Varillas for Set Handicap: Juan Pablo Varillas (-1.5) vs Murkel Dellien (+1.5) at 0.6

  • 09:59 AM
    SJsjdhjnxnsjjdheyygajshjdpolq
    $98.16

    Sold 1227 Yes for Buenos Aires 2: Completed Match: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas at 0.08

  • 09:54 AM
    SJsjdhjnxnsjjdheyygajshjdpolq
    $1,202.46

    Bought 1227 Yes for Buenos Aires 2: Completed Match: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas at 0.98

  • 09:48 AM
    0X0x56f536a014f55cC6F611ead63D3ac3f29337AeE1-1778093511228
    $5.74

    Bought 7 Juan Pablo Varillas for Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas at 0.82

  • 09:23 AM
    SCSchappi
    $1.00

    Bought 5.263158 Murkel Dellien for Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas at 0.19

  • 07:46 AM
    TEtestoooorr
    $6.00

    Bought 31.578948 Murkel Dellien for Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas at 0.19

  • 07:46 AM
    LILilybaeum
    $17.16

    Bought 90.31579 Murkel Dellien for Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas at 0.19

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

LI1
Lilybaeum
Event PnL
-$0.91
Volume
$182.53
Positions
Murkel Dellien
382
38791873984189
Event PnL
+$3.98
Volume
$124.64
Positions
Juan Pablo Varillas
PO3
Po1yamory
Event PnL
+$0.50
Volume
$99.99
Positions
Juan Pablo Varillas
TE4
testoooorr
Event PnL
-$0.16
Volume
$31.58
Positions
Murkel Dellien
BF5
0xbfD7…7ff0
Event PnL
-$0.13
Volume
$25.64
Positions
Juan Pablo Varillas
CA6
carelia
Event PnL
-$0.72
Volume
$20.64
Positions
Murkel Dellien
567
0x56f5…1228
Event PnL
-$0.04
Volume
$7.00
Positions
Juan Pablo Varillas
SB8
sbsport
Event PnL
+$0.04
Volume
$7.00
Positions
Murkel Dellien

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas"?

As of the latest update, Completed Match leads the field as the frontrunner with a 5,000% win probability, followed by Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas Game Spread +/-5.5 at 950% and Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillas at 460%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $311K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

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